Era il 24 febbraio quando la Russia decide di invadere il suolo ucraino, oggi spostando lo sguardo sui due indici principali globali notiamo che:
- Euro Stoxx 50 è in perdita del -14,55% da inizio anno ma solo del -4,42% dall’inizio del conflitto
- S&P 500 è in perdita del -10,25% da inizio anno ed in pareggio dall’inizio del conflitto.
I numeri ci dicono che i mercati in maniera generalizzata da inizio anno hanno perdite del 10% prima del conflitto per motivi riguardanti l’inflazione ed aumenti dei tassi di interesse. Mentre dall’inizio degli scontri in terra ucraina hanno preso direzioni diverse anche per questioni geografiche essendo l’Europa più vicina e interessata economicamente dalla vicenda.
E’ evidente, come succede sempre, che il mercato ha iniziato a dare un prezzo ad uno scenario economico differente per l’Europa con una probabilità di Stagflazione (Inflazione alta e crescita economica in rallentamento) stimata oggi al 50%.
Non possiamo dire se sarà questo lo scenario essendo ancora poco direzionali le probabilità ma guardando il passato sicuramente stiamo entrando in una fase di mercato adatta per accumulare azionario.
Se hai liquidità, o meglio riserve lasciate ad hoc, l’occasione è ghiotta per costruire rendimenti migliori medi futuri per il tuo portafoglio. Senza sottovalutare lo scenario peggiore, ossia la Recessione, dove i mercati hanno raggiunto discese anche del -40% come nel 2008 o del -30% nel 2020 (dovresti ricordarti) puoi iniziare con piani di accumulo anche di 12/24 mesi sugli indici principali sfruttando il beneficio della diversificazione ed eliminando del rischio specifico selezionando singoli titoli o listini.
Avere un piano, essere pazienti e meticolosi occasioni del genere sono pasti ghiotti per ogni investitore visto che, la bella notizia, ogni crisi è stata puntualmente recuperata ed oltrepassata dai mercati con nuova crescita.
Infatti questi crolli sono fisiologici e parte integrante di un percorso di investimento e se gestiti razionalmente e non emotivamente possono diventare occasioni di maggior guadagno nel giusto orizzonte temporale.
Un ciclo economico infatti è fatto di una fase di crescita o espansione a cui seguirà un picco e un successivo rallentamento che può trasformarsi in una semplice contrazione fino ad arrivare ad una recessione e nei casi più violenti depressione, salvo poi ripartire per una nuova ripresa dopo aver raggiungo il picco minimo.
Quello che non possiamo sapere in anticipo e in maniera netta è la durata di ogni fase di questo ciclo e la simultaneità delle aree geografiche, ci possono essere infatti recessioni globali o locali e viceversa.
L’unico NOSTRO ALLEATO e lo ripeto e scrivo da anni è IL TEMPO, perché secondo la teoria del secular trend, mentre questi cicli si ripetono, la tendenza è al rialzo.
Cosi anche questa volta, come sempre successo in passato, a meno di una guerra nucleare dagli scenari apocalittici (ma a quel punto non penso che sarà l’andamento dei ns investimenti il problema), il ciclo tenderà a ripetersi come dimostrano queste slide su quanto successo in passato in eventi simili.
Avere un portafoglio diversificato e ben costruito negli asset perderà terreno nelle fasi di rialzo rispetto ad un portafoglio speculativo unidirezionale ma sarà più protettivo nelle fasi di discesa e meno rischioso complessivamente, offrendo la possibilità di correggere in corso con scelte tattiche la strategia che porterà all’obiettivo finale.
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