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Da inizio anno con -10% generalizzato su quasi tutti in mercati azionari globali (ed anche peggio) e con le obbligazioni in territori negativo (vero pericolo ad oggi) la paura è tornata ad aleggiare tra gli investitori.
A dire il vero, non dovrebbe fare molto paura, visto che nemmeno troppo tempo fa abbiamo vissuto il ribasso più forte e repentino della storia a Febbraio/Marzo 2020 ma tendiamo a dimenticare lasciando spazio alle emozioni del presente.
C’è anche da dire che in tempi come questi si può essere tentati di dire “mantieni la rotta” o ” Continua a comprare “, e sono il primo a farlo, ma so che è più facile a dirsi che a farsi.
Razionalmente, però, c’è da dire anche che:
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Il grafico prende in esame vari ribassi dell’indice DowJones dal 1915 e percentuale di ritorno positivo nei successivi 3 anni.
Come puoi vedere, i rendimenti a 3 anni tendono ad essere positivi indipendentemente dall’entità del calo iniziale del mercato. Ancora più importante, questi rendimenti tendono ad essere più positivi a seguito di cali di mercato più ampi .
L’unica eccezione, rappresentata dalla “gobbe” a sinistra dello zero, è stata la Grande Depressione dove le cose non andarono bene nel breve-medio termine (3 anni). Ma perchè dovresti investire in azionario nel medio termine? Prenderesti solo più rischi.
Possiamo dire quindi che la maggior parte degli investitori pensa a questi cali nel modo sbagliato?
Direi proprio di si, in primo luogo perchè nel breve-medio termine anche i peggiori ribassi si trasformano in rendimenti maggiori e anche se dovessimo trovarci in una nuova grande depressione (eventi che succedono 1 volta in un secolo) ragionare nel LUNGO PERIODO resta il naturale salva-investimento.
Ricorda sono due i maggiori pericoli per i tuoi investimenti e che devi evitare:
1) l’eccessiva emotività (paura ed avidità sono gli estremi)
2) porti le domande sbagliate.
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