Il rischio è quantificabile
Uno degli argomenti che spesso affronto con colleghi e clienti è l’esasperazione nell’affidarsi ad equazioni matematiche per definire il rischio.
Benchmark, rendimenti aggiustati per il rischio (frontiera efficiente) e profili di rischio possono sicuramente aiutare gli investitori a darsi dei parametri di riferimento per prendere delle decisioni nel presente ma anche per gestire la volatilità del portafoglio nella sua vita futura.
Ma ATTENZIONE!
“Il rischio deriva dal non sapere cosa stai facendo”
Come disse una volta Warren Buffett, se ti siedi su queste certezze rischi di perdere di vista quella piccola percentuale di RISCHIO non calcolabile e che può spiazzarti.
Lo stesso Carl Richards scrisse: “Il rischio è ciò che rimane quando hai pensato a tutto”.
Spesso si parla di intervalli di confidenza nelle simulazioni statistiche, e queste variano tra il 90 e 99% di affidabilità. Tradotto, NESSUN METODO HA SICUREZZA AL 100%.
Quindi penso sia necessario affidarsi a sistemi quantitativi come questi a patto che siano affiancati da una forte componente qualitativa nell’investire che essenzialmente riassumerei nelle 2 domande dell’immagine:
- SONO SULLA BUONA STRADA PER RAGGIUNGERTI PER I MIEI OBIETTIVI FINANZIARI?
- COME POSSO RIDURRE AL MINIMO LA PROBABILITA’ DI NON RAGGIUNGERLI?
Farsi queste due giuste domande e conoscere saldamente le risposte ti permetteranno di gestire anche il rischio non quantificabile.

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