Tutti temono l’imprevedibile, è naturale nella vita e soprattutto negli investimenti. Il mercato che da sempre mette a dura prova l’emotività di ogni investitore è sicuramente l’azionario.
Tra crolli, volatilità ma anche i migliori rendimenti storici resta, oggi più che mai, un mercato essenziale in ogni portafoglio finanziario. Il modo migliore per farselo piacere resta conoscerlo meglio.
Unshakeable: Your Financial Freedom Playbook, di Tony Robbins reputo sia tra i libri cardine per avere una buona base di educazione finanziaria e che consiglio a tutti clienti e non.
Partendo dal testo ho individuato 7 punti che possono aiutarti nell’accettare, capire ed apprezzare tutti i lati del mercato azionario.
Ogni punto si basa sulle intuizioni dei principali investitori mondiali, come Ray Dalio e John Bogle, utilizzando schemi chiari stabiliti in decenni di dati.
Conoscere e dare da mangiare alla razionalità è l’unico antidoto allo stress emotivo durante situazioni come marzo 2020 dove tutto sembra crollare ma poi sappiamo come è andato a finire l’anno con rendimenti più che positivi.
Fatto #1: In media, le correzioni avvengono una volta all’anno
Per più di un secolo, il mercato ha visto quasi una correzione (un calo del 10% o più) all’anno. In altre parole, le correzioni sono una parte regolare delle stagioni finanziarie e puoi aspettarti di vedere tante correzioni quanti sono i compleanni per tutta la vita.
La correzione media è simile a questa:
- 54 giorni di lunghezza
- 13,5% di calo del mercato
- Si verifica una volta all’anno
L’incertezza di una correzione può indurre le persone a commettere grandi errori, ma in realtà la maggior parte delle correzioni finisce prima che tu te ne accorga. Se tieni forte, è probabile che la tempesta passerà.
Fatto #2: meno del 20% di tutte le correzioni si trasforma in un mercato ribassista
Quando il mercato azionario inizia a crollare, si può essere tentati di abbandonare la nave vendendo attività e spostandosi in liquidità. Tuttavia, farlo potrebbe essere un grosso errore.
Probabilmente venderesti tutti i tuoi asset a un minimo, subito prima che il mercato rimbalzi!
Come mai? Meno del 20% delle correzioni si trasforma in mercati ribassisti. In altre parole, l’80% delle correzioni sono solo brevi interruzioni in mercati rialzisti altrimenti intatti, il che significa che vendere in anticipo ti farebbe perdere il resto della tendenza al rialzo.
Fatto #3: Nessuno può prevedere in modo coerente se il mercato aumenterà o scenderà
I media perpetuano un mito secondo cui, se sei abbastanza intelligente, puoi prevedere le mosse del mercato ed evitare i suoi drawdown.
Ma la realtà è: nessuno può cronometrare il mercato.
Durante l’attuale mercato rialzista, ci sono state dozzine di chiamate al crollo del mercato azionario da parte di investitori anche molto esperti. Nessuna di queste chiamate si è avverata e se avessi ascoltato questi esperti, ti saresti perso il proseguo della salita.
The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.
– Warren Buffett
Fatto #4: il mercato è sempre cresciuto, nonostante le battute d’arresto nel breve termine
I cali di mercato sono un evento molto regolare. Ad esempio, lo S&P 500, il principale indice che replica il mercato azionario statunitense, è sceso in media di almeno il 14,2% all’anno tra il 1980 e il 2015.
Come l’inverno, queste fasi fanno parte delle stagioni del mercato. In questo stesso periodo di tempo, nonostante questi cali temporanei, il mercato ha finito per ottenere un rendimento positivo 27 di 36 anni. Questo è il 75% delle volte!
Fatto #5: Storicamente, i mercati ribassisti si sono verificati ogni tre o cinque anni
Nell’arco di 115 anni tra il 1900 e il 2015, ci sono stati 34 mercati ribassisti.
Ma i mercati ribassisti non durano. In quel lasso di tempo, sono variati in lunghezza da 45 giorni a 694 giorni, ma in media sono durati circa un anno.
Fatto #6: i mercati ribassisti diventano mercati rialzisti
Ricordi quanto sembrava fragile il mondo nel 2008, quando le banche stavano crollando e il mercato azionario era in caduta libera?
Quando hai immaginato il futuro, ti sembrava oscuro e pericoloso? O sembrava che i bei tempi fossero appena dietro l’angolo e la festa stesse per iniziare?
Il fatto è che, una volta terminato un mercato ribassista, i successivi 12 mesi possono vedere guadagni di mercato cruciali.
Le migliori opportunità arrivano in tempi di massimo pessimismo.
– John Templeton
Fatto #7: Il pericolo più grande è essere fuori mercato
Dal 1996 al 2015, l’S&P 500 ha restituito una media dell’8,2% all’anno.
Ma se hai perso i primi 10 giorni di trading durante quel periodo, i tuoi rendimenti sono diminuiti a solo il 4,5% all’anno.
Peggiora! Se ti sei perso i primi 20 giorni di trading, i tuoi rendimenti erano solo del 2,1%.
E se ti sei perso i primi 30 giorni di trading? I tuoi guadagni sono svaniti nel nulla, cadendo completamente a zero!
Non puoi vincere stando seduto in panchina. Devi essere nel gioco. Per dirla in altro modo, la paura non viene premiata. Il coraggio SI.
– Tony Robbins
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