Questo inizio anno è partito in maniera piuttosto difficile per il mercato azionario. Ma è qualcosa di diverso?
Andiamo ad analizzare il passato.

Questo grafico e la tabella a seguire mostrano i maggiori cali intra-annuali e rendimenti dello S&P 500. Analizzando ogni anno il calo medio è del 13% circa.


Il calo del 2022 a che punto sta?
Siamo al 10%, e finora non è finito il mondo.
Vorrei farti notare, poi, che nonostante i ribassi il mercato quasi mai ha chiuso l’anno senza recuperare.
Nel 2020, ad esempio, abbiamo vissuto un calo intra-anno del 34%, ma il mercato si è ripreso e ha finito per superare il 16%.
Nonostante il calo medio intra-annuale dal 1928 sia stato del 13%, il rendimento annualizzato fino ad oggi è positivo dell’10,5%.
I crolli e la volatilità del mercato azionario fanno parte degli investimenti.
Se vuoi una volatilità zero, puoi mettere i tuoi soldi in un conto di risparmio e ottenere un tasso di interesse dello 0,3% se va bene prendendo ad esempio gli ultimi tassi dei libretti postali.
Ma, se invece, vuoi costruire ricchezza a lungo termine, devi accettare la volatilità a breve termine per essere ricompensato profumatamente con un tasso di rendimento notevolmente più alto nel medio- lungo termine (10% annualizzato è il rendimento dello S&P500 negli ultimi 100 anni quasi con in mezzo guerre e pandemie).
Vuoi alti rendimenti e basso rischio? Questo non esiste, né oggi né mai. Ciò significa che otteniamo rendimenti elevati solo in cambio dell’accettazione della volatilità.
Il calo del 10% che abbiamo sperimentato nelle ultime due settimane sarà il peggiore che vedremo quest’anno? O ne vedremo un altro grande come nel 1987, 2008 o 2020? Non ne ho idea. Se potessi rispondere a domande del genere sarei un miliardario, neanche un milionario. Ma so che l’acquisto e la detenzione di fondi indicizzati e non ti garantisce la tua giusta quota di tutta la crescita del mercato.
Mantieni la rotta.
Come sempre, ricordandoti che significa essere un investitore.

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