Come ogni anno, nei primi giorni di gennaio escono decine di outlook dai principali gestori, esperti e fondi di investimento (non quelli che trovate su social ed internet, ma chi realmente gestisce milioni, prende decisioni e pubblica il risultato del proprio lavoro).
In verità, anche gli esperti stanno semplicemente indovinando cosa accadrà nel prossimo anno. Nel 2020, quasi nessuno aveva indovinato una pandemia. Nel 2021, gli NFT sono volati completamente sotto il radar degli esperti e nessuno ha visto una nave portacontainer depositarsi nel Canale di Suez nella loro sfera di cristallo.
Visual Capitalist ha elaborato un tabellone “BINGO” che racchiude le 25 previsioni maggiormente condivise tra le centinaia di interviste, ricerche e consigli dati dagli esperti.
Quali sono le prospettive generali per il 2022?
Complessivamente un cauto ottimismo, ma vediamo le indicazioni principali:
Queste le principali:
- Per cominciare, l’economia globale probabilmente continuerà a crescere, ma non al ritmo che ha fatto nel 2021
- La politica monetaria inizierà a inasprirsi nei prossimi 12 mesi
- Diversi esperti hanno descritto un’era di rendimenti azionari inferiori e maggiore volatilità
- Le tensioni geopolitiche si stanno riscaldando, ora che i paesi si sono abituati alle sfide immediate poste dalla pandemia
- 2022 in salita per la Cina, c’è pessimismo intorno alla strategia zero-COVID della Cina, che ancora oggi vede intere città sottoposte a rigidi ordini di blocco, ed incertezza sulla carenza di energia elettrica, una potenziale crisi immobiliare e la repressione normativa hanno smorzato l’entusiasmo per le prospettive a breve termine del paese
- Le preoccupazioni per l’inflazione sono sempre emerse qua e là, ma si prevede che l’inflazione avrà un impatto in futuro, gli esperti vedono anche che si sta stabilizzando (rispetto al 2021) man mano che le interruzioni della catena di approvvigionamento si risolveranno
- Un altro anno eccezionale per le auto elettriche, poiché i cambiamenti climatici domineranno maggiormente i riflettori nel 2022, le azioni normative costringeranno le case automobilistiche a considerare il futuro dei loro modelli a combustibili fossili
Tradotto, nessuno si aspetta che il 2022 sia tranquillo un pò come gli altri anni. Ci sarà volatilità sui mercati come è sempre stato, forse un pò meno negli ultimi anni.
Ma è anche vero che se il mercato restituisce rendimenti è proprio per tutto questo.
Alcuni Outlook interessanti per il 2022:
- Outlook 2022 di Bloomberg : questo articolo ha raccolto oltre 500 previsioni da banche e società di investimento di Wall Street.
- Le previsioni 2022 di All-In Podcast : questo vivace podcast, con Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks e David Friedberg, è sempre divertente e informativo. In questo episodio di previsioni, i maggiori vincitori e perdenti aziendali sono fantastici, così come gli asset con le migliori prestazioni.
- I principali rischi di Eurasia Group per il 2022 : questo gruppo completo di articoli copre molti argomenti e offre alcune previsioni molto credibili su ciò che potrebbe accadere sulla scena mondiale quest’anno.
- Previsioni di Wood Mackenzie per il 2022 : gli analisti di Wood Mackenzie offrono 10 previsioni per gli sviluppi chiave previsti nei settori dell’energia e delle risorse naturali nel 2022.
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