Nell’articolo “LE GRANDI ECONOMIE RALLENTERANNO LA CRESCITA?” abbiamo visto lo sviluppo delle attuali maggiori economie del mondo. Oggi proviamo a fare un punto sulle più accreditate previsioni.
Entro il 2030, la mappa dell’economia globale potrebbe sembrare molto diversa da oggi.
Secondo le recenti proiezioni di Standard Chartered, una banca multinazionale con sede a Londra, il prossimo decennio vedrà emergere mercati come l’India e la Turchia che salgono alla scala economica globale per diventare le centrali elettriche di domani.
Visualizzazione dell’espansione nei mercati emergenti
Il video di oggi si basa su un grafico precedente che mostra come si prevede una crescita economica nei prossimi anni.
Vediamo il cambiamento previsto nelle classifiche per le maggiori economie dal 2017 al 2030 di seguito:
Se le proiezioni utilizzate nel video sopra dimostrano di essere accurate, la più grande economia del 2030 sarà la Cina con 64,2 trilioni di dollari del PIL, dopo essersi adeguato alla parità di potere d’acquisto (PPP).
Questo è quasi $ 20 trilioni in più rispetto all’India, che sarà il secondo più grande in quel momento.
Da buono a grande
Mentre la dimensione dell’economia cinese è certamente un punto esclamativo, forse la storia più interessante qui è l’ascesa dei mercati in via di sviluppo in generale.
Entro il 2030, si prevede che sette delle 10 maggiori economie del mondo rientreranno in questa categoria:
Rango | Nazione | Proj. PIL (2030, PPP) | PIL (2017, PPP) | % modificare |
---|---|---|---|---|
# 1 | Cina | $ 64,2 trilioni | 23 trilioni di dollari | + 177% |
# 2 | India | $ 46,3 trilioni | $ 9,5 miliardi | + 387% |
# 3 | Stati Uniti | $ 31,0 trilioni | $ 19,4 trilioni | + 60% |
# 4 | Indonesia | $ 10,1 trilioni | $ 3,2 trilioni | + 216% |
# 5 | Turchia | $ 9,1 trilioni | $ 2,2 trilioni | + 314% |
# 6 | Brasile | $ 8,6 trilioni | $ 3,2 trilioni | + 169% |
# 7 | Egitto | $ 8 trilioni | $ 1,2 trilioni | + 583% |
# 8 | Russia | $ 7,9 trilioni | $ 4.0 trilioni | + 98% |
# 9 | Giappone | $ 7 trilioni | $ 5,4 trilioni | + 33% |
# 10 | Germania | $ 6.9 trilioni | $ 4,2 trilioni | + 64% |
In questo lasso di tempo, paesi come l’Egitto, la Cina, l’India, l’Indonesia, la Turchia e il Brasile vedranno tutte le proprie economie espandersi con una crescita a tre cifre in termini di PPP.
In particolare, l’economia indiana sarà sostenuta da una rapida crescita della popolazione nelle sue città, che sono alcune delle aree urbane a più rapida crescita sul pianeta. Allo stesso tempo, l’economia egiziana dovrebbe crescere da $ 1,2 trilioni a $ 8 trilioni di dollari secondo la banca – anche se questo sembra abbastanza ottimista.
Infine, economie sviluppate come gli Stati Uniti, la Germania e il Giappone continueranno a crescere, ma non al ritmo vertiginoso dei paesi in via di sviluppo. Se queste proiezioni dovessero risultare, le economie giapponese e tedesca completeranno l’elenco con gli spot 9 e 10 rispettivamente.
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