Mentre la peggior crisi dal dopo guerra a causa del COVID-19 viene affrontata dai mercati, per gli investitori incerti diventa un ottimo banco di prova per conoscere meglio la refrattarietà delle proprie convinzioni finanziarie.
Come si è comportato il mercato storicamente? E quali azioni può mettere in atto un investitore per tutelare il proprio piano finanziario? Utilizziamo l’infografica del New York Life Investments per analizzare la situazione.
Il mercato rimbalza nel tempo
Il mercato “gioca” per anticipare quello che accadrà, tra previsioni, analisi e congetture. Spesso giuste, a volte di poco inesatte. Ma c’è sempre l’imprevedibile come guerre, epidemie o crisi improvvise. Ogni flessione è stata storicamente di breve durata, con lo S & P 500 che nella maggior parte dei casi ha registrato guadagni di 12 mesi.
Evento | Data di mercato bassa | Variazione% di 6 mesi, S&P 500 | Variazione% di 12 mesi, S&P 500 |
Israele arabo guerra / embargo petrolifero | 05-Dec-73 | -2.01% | -28,24% |
Crisi iraniana degli ostaggi | 07-Nov-79 | 7,32% | 29.35% |
Lunedì nero | 19-Ott-87 | 14.71% | 23.19% |
Prima Guerra del Golfo | 09-Jan-91 | 20.75% | 34.07% |
Attacchi dell’11 settembre | 21-Set-01 | 19.44% | -12,47% |
SARS | 11-Mar-03 | 26.94% | 38.22% |
Crisi finanziaria globale | 09-Mar-09 | 52.75% | 68.57% |
Intervento in Libia | 16-Mar-11 | -3,25% | 11,72% |
Brexit | 27-Giu-16 | 13.41% | 20.94% |
Le due eccezioni sono l’embargo petrolifero del 1973 e gli attacchi dell’11 settembre, in cui i mercati hanno impiegato più tempo a riprendersi ma lo hanno fatto.
Lo stress emotivo che colpisce gli investitori durante crisi o recessioni può facilitare le scelte sbagliate come la vendita o il rifugiarsi in asset “sicure” distruggendo la diversificazione iniziale e quindi sconvolgendo il profilo di rischio.
La storia ci insegna che è in momenti come questo che stiamo vivendo che si costruiscono i successi finanziari futuri, semplicemente NON FACENDO NULLA o meglio ancora UTILIZZANDO DELLA LIQUIDITA’ EXTRA.
Vediamo due casi opposti, ipotizzando di investire $1000 :.
- L’investitore A, reagisce emotivamente al declino del mercato e vende le sue azioni al minimo di mercato e non rientra nel mercato fino a quando i prezzi non raggiungono il picco precedente
- L’investitore B, reagisce razionalmente nonostante la volatilità del mercato e mantiene i suoi investimenti.
Alla fine di sette anni, A si ritrova con quasi il doppio di B grazie ai giusti comportamenti adottati durante una flessione come quella del 2008 che tutti ricordiamo.
Passare all’azione
E’ evidente come i giusti comportamenti siano una variabile fondamentale per il conseguimento di ottimi risultati negli investimenti, e la teoria ne amplifica l’efficacia.
Ma in pratica cosa può, e deve, fare un investitore per affrontare le tempeste finanziarie?
Ecco 3 regole per riuscire a gestire le emozioni:
- Mantienere la rotta.
La maggior parte degli investitori può trattenere i propri titoli, soprattutto se sono molto lontani dalla pensione. Se apportano contributi regolari, gli investitori possono continuare a farlo piuttosto che cercare di cronometrare il mercato.
- Rivedere le allocazioni degli asset.
Gli investitori dovrebbero assicurarsi che il loro mix di allocazione delle attività rifletta ancora la tolleranza al rischio, l’età, lo stile di vita desiderato e altri redditi disponibili. La diversificazione del portafoglio è inoltre estremamente importante per aiutare a gestire il rischio e fornire un rendimento competitivo.
- Avere un fondo di emergenza in contanti.
Le discese possono essere affrontate in maniera proattiva, e positiva, andando ad impiegare la liquidità di emergenza accantonata precedentemente. Ogni pianificazione finanziaria DEVE prevedere un fondo di emergenza in liquidità. Generalmente consiglio dalle 3 alle 6 mensilità. Il vantaggio è duplice, come avere disponibilità per gli imprevisti e non dovere smontare le pianificazioni di lungo, oppure, avere cartucce liquide per mettere un boost alla parte azionaria durante i forti ribassi.
Queste azioni aiutano gli investitori a rimanere concentrati sui loro piani di investimento.
Alimentare le conoscenze ed imparare ad accettare la volatilità restano sempre le migliori armi per l’investitore per ottenere un successo maggiore a lungo termine.
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