Nell’ultimo biennio si è sentito parlare sempre più di mega trend di crescita globale come idee di investimento alternative alle classiche soluzioni finanziarie.Vediamo insieme come potranno incidere nel mercato del futuro.
È difficile dire con certezza cosa riserva il futuro, e come dico sempre nessuno ha la sfera di cristallo.
Perciò, è compito degli addetti ai lavori trovare opportunità analizzando il mercato. C’è solo un problema: la frenesia delle informazioni di oggi rende complesso la scrematura con il “rumore”, ovvero quelle notizie e dati poco attendibili.
Dove dovrebbe concentrarsi l’attenzione di un investitore, quando si prevede che quasi ogni nuova impresa sarà la prossima grande novità?
La potente influenza delle macro tendenze o mega trend
L’infografica di oggi ci viene fornita da US Global Investors mostra come poter analizzare le tendenze macroeconomiche fornendo uno strumento adatto per le future scelte di investimento.
Vediamo i vari punti insieme.
Due principali approcci di investimento
Quando si selezionano gli stock, molti investitori rientrano in uno dei due campi:
1. Investimenti top-down
- Analizzare le tendenze macroeconomiche.
- Identificare settori e regioni specifici.
- Scegliere singoli titoli in base ai fondamentali dell’azienda.
Considerando l’invecchiamento della popolazione cinese, un investitore top-down può scegliere di investire in titoli sanitari cinesi.
2. Investimenti dal basso verso l’alto o bottom-up
- Completa analisi approfondite dell’azienda.
- Selezione di uno stock che superi gli altri nel suo settore.
Un investitore bottom-up potrebbe analizzare Home Depot e scegliere di investire se avesse una performance forte rispetto a quella di Lowe.
Questi approcci possono essere usati separatamente o anche combinati insieme.
Cos’è una tendenza macro?
Una tendenza macro è uno spostamento direzionale a lungo termine che colpisce una grande popolazione, spesso su scala globale. Ad esempio, il cambiamento climatico sta influenzando le industrie sia in termini positivi che negativi. Mentre le industrie “verdi” hanno visto un maggiore sostegno, le stazioni sciistiche prevedono di avere il 50% di stagioni invernali più brevi entro il 2050.
Esistono due modi principali per identificare i trend macro:
- Politica del governo
Le politiche del governo sono un precursore del cambiamento, che modellano le tendenze macro e creano opportunità. Ad esempio, il Recovery Act di Obama ha alimentato la crescita delle energie rinnovabili con un investimento di $ 90 miliardi. - Cicli economici
La natura ciclica dell’economia significa che gli investitori possono anche utilizzare la cronologia per identificare i macro trend. Considerariamo la politica fiscale e monetaria, che viene attuata in risposta ai dati economici:- Economia in espansione
La banca centrale aumenta i tassi e il governo riduce gli stimoli fiscali. Di conseguenza, l’inflazione è moderata. - Economia in contrazione
La banca centrale abbassa i tassi e il governo aumenta gli stimoli fiscali. Di conseguenza, la crescita è stimolata.
- Economia in espansione
Scoperta del valore a lungo termine
Le macro tendenze sono uno strumento chiave per scoprire opportunità di mercato a lungo termine. Sono utili perché sono:
- Unbiased e guidate dai dati
- Non influenzate dai titoli quotidiani
- Tendono ad evitare industrie di nicchia più rischiose
- Possono essere diversificate per settori e regioni
Attualmente ci sono molte tendenze macro in gioco. Ad esempio, la radicale riforma fiscale e la deregolamentazione di Trump hanno stimolato l’economia statunitense, portando la crescita del PIL a un massimo di 13 anni superiore al 3% nel terzo trimestre del 2018.
Tuttavia, non tutti sono vincitori. Le ridotte imposte americane hanno reso il Canada meno competitivo. Si stima che il 4,9% del PIL canadese sia a rischio a causa degli effetti a catena della riforma fiscale statunitense. Inoltre, i regolatori temono che le deregolamentazioni bancarie possano mettere a rischio il sistema finanziario.
Le proposte in esame … indeboliscono i buffer che sono fondamentali per la resilienza del nostro sistema.
– Lael Brainard, membro del Consiglio di amministrazione della Federal Reserve
Quindi, come fanno gli investitori a scremare questa vastità di informazioni in un futuro di ricchezza?
Individuare la prossima ondata
Nel mondo iperconnesso di oggi, è facile perdersi nel sovraccarico di dati. Pensare a un quadro più ampio consente agli investitori di concentrarsi su tendenze che:
- Hanno una visione a lungo termine
- Influiscono su una grande popolazione
- Creano una visione più chiara del futuro
Quindi, un investitore può rivolgersi alle regioni e ai settori più promettenti . Se utilizzato in modo efficace, questo approccio permette agli addetti ai lavori di proporre una soluzione di investimento ai risparmiatori adatta al lungo periodo, asettica dalle tempeste mediatiche giornaliere ma soprattutto maggiormente immune dalla nociva emotività.
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Because restrictive covenants affecting protected classes are no longer enforceable, you can choose to do nothing, or you can act based on whether your property’s land type is abstract or Torrens. Properties sold for mortgage and judgment defaults are processed through the Sheriff’s Office. The sheriff’s sales are held on the first (1st) Friday of every other month at 10:30 a.m. in the Luzerne County Courthouse (unless otherwise changed). If you have any specific questions about these document types, please consult a title company or real estate attorney. Our office can’t provide legal advice. A tax history search will be able to tell you the property’s value at the time of assessment, past taxes paid, whether any taxes are due, and if there are any liens on the property. A lien is placed on a home when the owner owes money to a lender, the IRS, or possibly even a contractor who did remodeling work on the home. Even homeowners associations (HOAs) can place liens on properties for unpaid dues or assessments.
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