Un quesito sulla bocca di molti al momento riguarda il possibile avvicinarsi di una recessione globale. Ma a che punto è l’economia globale?
Con una ripresa abbastanza inaspettata delle quotazioni in quasi tutti i mercati del mondo, gli analisti si sono trovati spiazzati.
La maggioranza prevedeva che il 2019 sarebbe stato un periodo di sofferenza, mentre nei primi due mesi e mezzo sono stati ottenuti guadagni che normalmente sono quelli di un intero anno. Le valutazioni azionarie nei principali mercati, però, restano alte e per i profitti ci si aspetta una crescita non particolarmente elevata.
Non è dunque improbabile che le performance da qui in poi, essendo state basate soprattutto su un rerating, si affievoliscano parecchio
Le preoccupazioni riguardo a una possibile recessione, quindi, resteranno elevate nel breve termine, ma guardando a un orizzonte temporale più lungo si può essere ottimisti riguardo alla crescita, come conseguenza di tre fattori:
1) I prezzi energetici sono più bassi
Sebbene si tratti in parte di una conseguenza dell’indebolimento della domanda a livello globale, questa situazione sta aiutando ad abbassare il livello di inflazione, che a sua volta sta sostenendo il potere d’acquisto dei consumatori a livello globale. I consumatori statunitensi tendono a vedere i benefici complessivi di questa situazione, grazie alla tassazione relativamente bassa sulla benzina che, combinata con un aumento dei compensi, sta portando a una crescita dei salari reali attorno al 2%, il livello più alto negli ultimi tre anni. Ciò vale anche per l’Europa e l’Asia.
2) Gli Stati Uniti e la Cina si stanno avvicinando a un accordo commerciale
Dopo la decisione del Presidente Trump di portare la deadline oltre il 1° marzo per l’aumento dei dazi dal 10% al 25% sui 200 miliardi di dollari di importazioni cinesi.
Sebbene ci siano ancora diversi ostacoli da superare, soprattutto in riferimento alla protezione dei diritti di proprietà intellettuale, ciò ha segnato un miglioramento rispetto all’escalation che tutti si aspettavamo precedentemente. L’aumento dei dazi sarà ora più limitato e ciò aiuterà a ridurre i costi, a proteggere i margini di profitto e a contenere l’inflazione. L’accordo dovrebbe anche aiutare a ridurre l’incertezza e a portare un po’ di chiarezza alle società che hanno sospeso la pianificazione delle spese, in attesa di decidere il futuro delle loro supply chain internazionali.
Tuttavia, le notizie sull’accordo commerciale non sono tutte positive. Parte dell’accordo prevederà maggiori acquisti di prodotti energetici, agricoli e manifatturieri statunitensi da parte della Cina ($1 miliardo nel corso dei prossimi sei anni), che probabilmente porterà a una riduzione delle vendite per le aziende ex-Usa. L’Europa e il Giappone potrebbero soffrirne in qualche modo. Inoltre, al riappacificarsi delle tensioni commerciali, la guerra tecnologica rimane pienamente aperta e ci aspettiamo che gli Stati Uniti continueranno a sfidare la Cina in quest’area, attraverso sanzioni sulle società cinesi o attraverso il divieto alle aziende Usa di esportare componenti tecnologiche fondamentali
3) La politica monetaria è più accomodante
Ciò in parte è una conseguenza del minor livello di inflazione, ma segna anche un cambiamento dell’orientamento politico della Fed, dato che la Banca centrale è diventata più propensa a rispondere alle condizioni del mercato finanziario. Inoltre, la Fed ha segnalato una fine più vicina del previsto per il suo quantitative tightening, il processo di riduzione di bilancio che dovrebbe essere completato entro la fine dell’anno secondo le aspettative attuali. Al momento sembra inoltre abbastanza improbabile che la Camera controllata dai Democratici darà il via libera a ulteriori sostegni fiscali.
Questi sono 3 fattori che potrebbero dare ottimismo sulla crescita globale di domani, e come ogni analisi servono a dare fare una radiografia dell’economia oggi.
Oggi, non domani o dopodomani quindi sempre meglio basare la propria strategia di investimento su altri presupposti come TEMPO e OBIETTIVI rimanendo però sempre aggiornati sul contesto del momento.
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