Secondo le stime di J.P. Morgan, Cina, Stati Uniti e l’Eurozona registreranno una crescita minore del Pil.
Proviamo intanto a vedere con il grafico sotto dove si prevede che la crescita globale si verifichi nel 2019:
Il grafico di oggi utilizza i dati di Standard Chartered e del Fondo monetario internazionale per stimare dove ci sarà crescita economica nel 2019 usando termini di parità di potere d’acquisto (PPP).
Nella tabella a seguire invece, si confronta anche la quota della torta del PIL globale presa nel tempo da paesi e regioni chiave:
Paese o Regione | Quota di crescita del PIL globale (PPA) nel 2019F |
---|---|
Cina | 33% |
Altro Asia (Escl. Cina / Giappone) | 29% |
stati Uniti | 11% |
Medio Oriente e Nord Africa | 4% |
Area Euro | 4% |
America Latina e Caraibi | 3% |
Altra Europa | 3% |
Africa sub-sahariana | 2% |
Giappone | 1% |
Regno Unito | 1% |
Canada | 1% |
Resto del mondo | 8% |
L’Asia nel suo complesso rappresenterà il 63% di tutta la crescita del PIL globale (PPP) quest’anno, con la parte del leone che andrà alla Cina. Paesi come l’India e l’Indonesia contribuiranno alla quota “Altro Asia” e il Giappone contribuirà solo all’1% alla crescita globale.
In termini di economie sviluppate, gli Stati Uniti porteranno il pacchetto (11%) a contribuire alla crescita globale. L’Europa aggiungerà l’8% tra le varie sottoregioni e il Canada aggiungerà l’1%.
Quota di economia globale nel tempo
Sulla base delle proiezioni di cui sopra, è interessante dare un’occhiata al modo in cui ogni regione o quota del PIL globale (PPP) del paese è cambiata negli ultimi decenni.
Per fare ciò, utiliziamo le proiezioni IMF dal suo strumento di mappatura dei dati per approssimare le regioni sopra, anche se ci sono alcune piccole differenze nel modo in cui i dati sono organizzati.
Paese o Regione | Quota del PIL (PPP, 1980) | Quota del PIL (PPP, 2019F) | Modificare |
---|---|---|---|
Sviluppo dell’Asia | 8,9% | 34,1% | +25.2 pp |
Unione europea | 29,9% | 16,0% | -13,9 pp |
stati Uniti | 21,6% | 15,0% | -6,6 pp |
America Latina e Caraibi | 12,2% | 7,4% | -4,8 pp |
Medio Oriente e Nord Africa | 8,6% | 6,5% | -2,1 pp |
Africa sub-sahariana | 2,4% | 3,0% | +0,6 pp |
Negli ultimi 40 anni, lo sviluppo dell’Asia ha aumentato la sua quota nell’economia globale (in termini di PPP) dall’8,9% ad un 34,1% stimato oggi. Questa regione dominante comprende Cina, India e altre economie in rapida crescita.
L’Unione europea e gli Stati Uniti hanno contribuito con il 51,5% della produttività globale nel 1980, ma ora rappresentano il 31% del mix economico totale. Allo stesso modo, le regioni dell’America Latina e del MENA stanno assistendo a diminuzioni simili della loro fetta di torta economica.
Ieri, oggi e chissà domani chi sarà la locomotiva della crescita globale.
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