Con la fine di giugno si è chiuso un semestre “impegnativo” sui mercati azionari. In America il listino principale di Wall Street, l’S&P 500, ha chiuso i sei mesi peggiori dal 1970 con una perdita del 20,6%. Ancora peggio ha fatto il tecnologico Nasdaq che ha lasciato per strada il 29,5%. L’Europa però non è andata molto meglio. Basti pensare che il nostro Ftse Mib ha perso da inizio anno il 22,13% (di cui -13,1% nel solo mese di giugno).
Questi numeri sono la conseguenza di un quadro geopolitico instabile, con la guerra in Ucraina che ormai dura da oltre 4 mesi e le conseguenti sanzioni occidentali alla Russia. L’aumento dei prezzi delle materie prime ha fatto schizzare verso l’alto l’inflazione, portando le principali banche centrali del pianeta a ritoccare verso l’alto i tassi d’interesse. Tutte circostanze che non hanno fatto bene al mercato azionario, ormai orientato a vedere all’orizzonte una possibile recessione ma fa parte della ciclicità dei mercati.
In tutto questo, alcuni esperti appaiono convinti del fatto che il mercato Orso durerà ancora per un pezzo. Il noto gestore di fondi Michael Burry, famoso per il film “La Grande Scommessa”, addirittura stima che al momento siamo solo a metà del calo sui mercati (ma ricordatevi sempre quello che vi ho detto sulle previsioni). Lo stesso Burry sono anni che spara su ribassi sconvolgenti vivendo ancora sull’onda della sua scommessa azzeccata del 2008, ma la sua gestione da anni produce solo rendimenti negativi.
I movimenti principali del mese sui mercati
- In Europa i listini sono andati tutti non bene. Il Ftse Mib in Italia ha chiuso il mese a 22.667 punti (-13,10% da inizio mese), il Dax tedesco ha perso l’11,08%. Un po’ meglio il Cac40 francese, giù “solo” dell’8,44%.
- Negli Usa l’S&P 500 è arretrato dell’8,39%, dopo il recupero di maggio. Ancora pesante il Nasdaq, che ha visto una perdita a giugno pari al 9% della sua capitalizzazione.
- In Asia, il Ftse China A 50 ha visto invece una corposa ripresa del +10,15%. Meno brillante, ma comunque positivo, l’Hang Seng a Hong Kong (+2,08%). In Giappone, il Nikkei ha vissuto un mese negativo, chiudendo in ribasso del -3,25%.
- Sul fronte bond, il rendimento del bond decennale USA è cresciuto nel corso del mese fino a toccare quota 2,9% (dal 2,8%). In Europa, lo spread Btp/Bund è stabile sulla fine di maggio a quota 198 punti.
- L’oro è sceso a quota 1.788 dollari l’oncia (da 1.845). Il gas naturale europeo, invece, è salito corposamente nel corso del mese e ora viene scambiato a 144 euro al megawatt/ora. Il petrolio Brent è calato leggermente a 111 dollari al barile mentre il Wti sta a quota 108 dollari.
- Il dollaro si è avvicinato all’euro e ora è scambiato a 1,04.
Da tenere d’occhio a luglio
Banche Centrali da padrone per il mese. Il 21 luglio la Bce annuncerà il primo rialzo dei tassi da 11 anni a questa parte. Attese anche le indicazioni su funzionamento e dotazione dello scudo anti-spread, strumento che interessa molto da vicino i Paesi molto indebitati dell’Eurozona, come l’Italia (seconda solo alla Grecia). Il 27 luglio, invece, sarà di nuovo il turno della Federal Reserve che, salvo sorprese, dovrebbe varare il secondo aumento da 0,75 punti percentuali dei tassi d’interesse.
Resta importante il focus su possibili nuove sanzioni dell’Occidente alla Russia e sulle reazioni del Cremlino. Un eventuale segnale di de-escalation sarebbe molto gradito dai mercati, che potrebbero reagire con euforia. Ma, allo stato attuale delle cose, è difficile prevedere che tutto questo possa accadere nel mese di luglio.
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